Carobit Lounge Conversation: Deal or no Deal

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Originator:	Hooligan	Printable Version
Title:	Deal or no Deal

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From: Hooligan	On: 2010/02/08 06:13:20
Ok. I've got new rules you've got two boxes A and B, both have unknown cash prizes in them. What you do know is that one prize is double the other. OK, so you open one of the boxes and it has $100 in it, then the host asks if you want to change boxes, what is the other box worth? My reasoning is 50% chance of $200 and 50% chance of $50, so it is worth .5 x 200 + .5 x 50 = 100 + 25 = $125 the other box is worth more in theory, so you change. This will always be the case though, whatever the prize you first see, the other box is always worth 1.25 times the other one, so the host doesn't need to open the box, you always change. But that makes no sense, you would then always change back again in any case! BTW, if there was a pool of players playing where they had opened just one box each, and you had a chance to buy their 'unopened' boxes from them, then I think it would be worth paying up to 125% of the open box amount for each corresponding closed box. Seems a contradiction, what's going on?

From: coral47	On: 2010/02/08 23:54:58
>> what's going on? Your Fuzzy Math is topped only by your Fuzzy Logic?

From: Hooligan	On: 2010/02/09 08:50:56
ok coral, so if the first box is opened with $100, would you stick with the $100 or would you take the 50% chance of getting $200, with 50% chance of it dropping to $50 I know which the best bet seems to be. It is always logical to change to the other box.

From: coral47	On: 2010/02/10 23:22:10
What does Logic have to do with it? This is a straight up gamble. So that makes the best answer... "take the money and RUN".

From: mac	On: 2010/03/13 10:47:15
interesting, but how are you converting an "XOR" to an "AND"? you need to check the logic - you're making that conversion (appending a "plus" and a "times" operator) without merit. it's not an addition problem. it's an XOR logic gate. you've got 2 choices, but you can only have one of them. that mens you can have boxA XOR boxB not boxA AND boxB not boxA times boxB not boxA divided by boxB and not (50% of boxA) plus (50% of boxB). simply boxA XOR boxB (EITHER boxA OR boxB, but not both, and not any percentage mixture of both) >>"50% chance of $200 and 50% chance of $50"<< is not correct >>"100% chance of $200 OR 100% chance of $50"<< is correct you can't convert that to >>".5 x 200 + .5 x 50 = 100 + 25"<<

From: coral47	On: 2010/03/13 22:26:23
that's a long way around to say "straight up gamble" ; D

From: mac	On: 2010/03/14 04:23:01
what you want to do is figure this one out: (boxA * Murphy's Law) XOR (boxB * Murphy's Law) = (Looking like a genetically predetermined loser to your friends and family)

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